In 2022 there were 186 space launches, marking an all-time record in terms of space activity. This new golden age comes in the wake of the emergence of NewSpace, in which private companies both compete and partner with traditional state agencies. With SpaceX and Blue Origin amongst some of the most well-known, this movement marks a major transformation in space-related interests, with a shift away from the obsession with space exploration, instead refocusing on Earth and commercial applications. The latter offer a certain number of promises for the city, major infrastructure and the challenges they face, from pollution to surveillance and flow management in general. Leonard has cast an eye into the future, imagining three scenarios in which space technology has permanently transformed the city.
Infrastructure under surveillance
Thanks to an increase in satellite constellations in low Earth orbit, the sky has now amassed the majority of digital infrastructure. Powerful, latency-free connectivity is available, bypassing any geographical constraints. Starlink and Kuiper have paved the way for a host of new players. As such, space imaging technology has become more widespread and it can scan the surface of the globe with millimetre accuracy. Thermal imaging operators like VU provide heat maps that measure a building’s energy performance. These are in turn used by urban planners to limit heat islands, but also by banks to estimate the conditions of their green loans. The rise in natural disasters has made it much harder for insurers to do their job. As such, they too have put eyes in space to help estimate the damages caused as quickly and as accurately as possible. The technology used by Icelle to monitor floods is now used by most major industry players. Overall, a city’s urban metabolism is analysed from space. Successors of the TEMPO project, launched in 2023, can monitor air quality precisely. Infrastructure monitoring projects – in particular electric power infrastructure – are used to anticipate how vegetation grows and to plan, manage and intervene accordingly. This unprecedented surveillance capacity also creates new political tensions, while the authoritarian drift of certain administrations is denounced. Initially used to enforce the law – for example, to detect illegal construction – space technology is increasingly associated with predictive algorithms to try and predict citizens’ behaviour based on their activity. The S-EDGE project, which was first initiated as a research project in 2022, has given rise to the development of technology for piloting police drones from space, causing an outcry in public opinion.
The city on autopilot
Space technology has become the operating system of an increasingly automated city and its infrastructure. The combination of real-time data obtained from space, unprecedented computing power, and AI machine learning devices leads to widespread flow optimisation. Space technology has helped remove barriers in autonomous mobility by enabling the development of dynamic high-definition maps. Traffic optimisation, real-time parking availability and waste collection are all optimised from space data. As urban tasks are increasingly delegated to machines, citizen movements plead for greater human participation in and transparency of systems. As such, they are used in devices that combine human intelligence and automation technology. For example, the Communi-Chiamo app which was first introduced in Trieste has since spread all over the world. It allows residents to report problems related to waste, urban lighting, or roads. An AI coupled with satellite data then takes over to check the relevance and the grades each request’s priority. Gamification solutions are also being used to influence how the city is being used based on space data. Tourism apps such as Firenze Game manage to control the flow of tourists in real time thanks to a clever mix of playful incentives and satellite data.
Solar geoengineering as a response to climate tipping points
In this final scenario, space technology has become a tool for voluntary climate modification to mitigate the effects of global warming. Faced with the emergency, solutions most criticised by the scientific community have nevertheless been implemented. Clouds of sulphur or calcium carbonate particles are regularly released into the stratosphere to limit the power of the sun. Cloud seeding techniques are widespread, which intend to cause rain to fall artificially by adding aerosols or salt. Giant space mirrors have been installed and assembled in space to reflect the sun’s rays. In a similar vein, rafts of reflective bubbles are deployed at very high altitude to limit the effects of the sun. As tipping points approach, countries are coming up with increasingly crazier ideas. The major mining companies that have been exploiting the moon for several years are developing prototypes that fire plumes of moon dust into space with the aim of limiting the impact of the sun’s rays. Nevertheless, these solutions remain highly criticised, for it’s difficult to assess their short-term effectiveness and their long-term impact. To limit abuses, the UN has instigated regulatory efforts which in as early as 2023 underlined the risk of unilateral initiatives by a non-state or rogue state actor. For the majority of local authorities, geoengineering solutions remain complementary to efforts to structurally reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These types of technology do have a major limit: once launched, they cannot be stopped without taking the risk of a termination shock and its harmful effects.
It’s a way to gain time to try to solve structural problems related to energy consumption, production methods and consumption patterns, poverty and inequality.
Whatever the scenario, one thing now seems certain: the space economy is destined to develop exponentially. Estimated in 2022 at $469 billion, it could follow the same path as the digital economy. Considered for a time as a vertical market, it will undoubtedly end up supplying all sectors in a myriad of applications that we’re only just beginning to touch upon.
